Ahead of the Curve: Are bond markets approaching an inflection point?

Fixed income markets have entered 2026 from a position of strength. However, investors face a challenging landscape; from rising government debt and expanding fiscal deficits, to tariffs and shifting geopolitical dynamics. With the rate-cutting cycle nearly complete, focus is shifting to nominated Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the implications for inflation, monetary policy, and the US dollar. At the same time, surging capital expenditures in areas like artificial intelligence and defence raise questions about whether they will drive sustained growth or introduce new risks. Credit markets have...