Will long‑maturity government bond yields rise this year?

Similarly to his outlook from last year, T. Rowe Price’s Arif Husain, CFA expects long-maturity, high-quality government bond yields to rise substantially in 2026. His forecast for the year ahead is based around five key components that could shape fixed income markets. Arif anticipates further yield curve steepening, with global competition for capital remaining strong as widespread government deficit financing pushes yields higher, and the surge in AI‑related debt supply expected to make overall new bond issuance even larger. He also expects AI-driven capital expenditure to boost US growth...