- 16 June 2026
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A “super El Niño” threatens waves of commodity-driven inflation into 2027
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- 17.06.26
The climatic effect known as El Niño – a natural periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean – is threatening to increase global temperatures in coming months and drive extreme weather. It is predicted to arrive between June and August, according to estimates by the World Meteorological Organisation, with a 90% probability of persisting to November. "We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves," the WMO warned*.
El Niño can impact the global economy in many ways, with past episodes disrupting water levels in the Panama Canal, curbing hydroelectric power generation, and triggering unseasonal floods and droughts around the world. Such effects would impact food production.
Rolling waves of commodity price-driven inflation raise the risk of price pressures becoming ingrained, and would coincide with other adverse economic and geopolitical factors. It could result in a further populist lurch, particularly in Europe, ahead of key elections across the continent.
Read more about the link between El Niño and food price inflation in this article.
