- 23 July 2026
Morningstar’s Europe Active ETF Trends provides in-depth analysis of this fast-maturing market.
The quiet erosion beneath US growth
- PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS
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- 04.06.26
The US economy appears resilient, judging from key economic measures. AI-driven capex continues to power investment, support equity markets, and sustain a wealth effect that has propped up consumption. Real GDP growth remains positive. Private sector balance sheets are in generally good condition and many higher income and wealthy households have benefited from equity markets gains.
However, fragilities are increasing, especially as US households must now absorb another meaningful hit to their purchasing power, on top various other drags on real income growth. Tariffs, higher energy prices, slowing wage growth, and other factors have driven a sharp drop in real disposable personal income.
Usually, we would expect households to smooth through temporary changes in current income. However, households have been dealing with a series of shocks that have reduced the savings rate to historically low levels and risk denting expectations for future real income growth. Furthermore, AI is a new source of uncertainty for many workers.
This means real consumption growth, at some point, could catch down to real income reality. And if consumption slows, the effect could reverberate through the economy.
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