Conflict keeps Europe cautious

• Oil prices have created a growth shock – with supply impaired and demand inelastic, energy costs will worsen inflation, wages and global growth at least until year-end. • The US has seen ballooning AI‑related capex and collapsing free cash flow at the hyperscalers, as well as extreme earnings concentration. Corporate margins remain high. • Markets expected double-digit growth for Europe in 2026, but this has been impacted by the Middle East crisis. However, a weaker economy reduces inflation risk. • Capital markets may be relaxed, but there will be fallout in the real economy as global...