House View Q2 2026

• The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp oil and gas price shock, lifting uncertainty and skewing near-term macro risks. • Higher energy prices reduce global growth and lift headline inflation, with monetary policy easing likely delayed or possibly abandoned. • Prolonged closure risks materially higher inflation and weaker growth, while rapid normalisation should restore the pre-conflict growth recovery. • This situation makes us more cautious on asset allocation, but Aviva Investors' remains overweight equities, underweight credit, neutral duration and selective...