The futility of forecasting

The unpredictability of last year highlighted the pointlessness of forecasting. Very few people would have foreseen the impact of US President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ measures, along with the many economic and geopolitical events of the past 12 months. Despite the uncertainty, the best way to navigate a volatile and uncertain world remains diversification. Oldfield Partners strongly believes in concentrated portfolios of 20-30 stocks, with diversification possible through a small number of holdings. Although areas of the stock market are highly priced, there are parts of the market that still...